The Best Player On The Best Team: Tyrese Haliburton's Take
March 30, 2025
Tyrese Haliburton is the latest to weigh in on the MVP race just 2 weeks from the playoffs. His original take?
I grew up in an era where the best player on the best team wins MVP every time.
Well, let's check that. Tyrese was born on Feb 20th, 2000, and let's put his "growing up" years as age 3-16. So we need data from 2003 to 2016.
Who was the best team in each of those years, and who was the best player? For "best player", let's default to BPM as an all-in-one performance rating (we can try winshares and PER later too). Let's also add whether they won it or not.
NBA Top Teams by Season (2003-2016)
| Season | Team | Win % | Team's Best Player | Won MVP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | SAS | 73.2 | Tim Duncan | Yes |
| 2004 | IND | 74.4 | Metta World Peace | No |
| 2005 | PHO | 75.6 | Steve Nash | Yes |
| 2006 | DET | 78.0 | Chauncey Billups | No |
| 2007 | DAL | 81.7 | Dirk Nowitzki | Yes |
| 2008 | BOS | 80.5 | Kevin Garnett | No |
| 2009 | CLE | 80.5 | LeBron James | Yes |
| 2010 | CLE | 74.4 | LeBron James | Yes |
| 2011 | CHI | 75.6 | Derrick Rose | Yes |
| 2012 | CHI | 75.8 | Derrick Rose | No |
| 2013 | MIA | 80.5 | LeBron James | Yes |
| 2014 | SAS | 75.6 | Kawhi Leonard | No |
| 2015 | GSW | 81.7 | Stephen Curry | Yes |
| 2016 | GSW | 89.0 | Stephen Curry | Yes |
So 62% (9/14) of the winners were the best player on the best team. That's not great. But we can probably allow some wiggle room. First we need to see for the 5 off-years what happened. Was their team not the best, or were they not the best player on the team?
Years when the MVP didn't come from the team with the best record
| Year | MVP Winner | MVP's Team | Team Win % | Best Team | Win % | % Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Kevin Garnett | Minnesota Timberwolves | 70.7 | Indiana Pacers | 75.9 | +5.2% |
| 2006 | Steve Nash | Phoenix Suns | 65.9 | Detroit Pistons | 84.3 | +18.4% |
| 2008 | Kobe Bryant | Los Angeles Lakers | 69.5 | Boston Celtics | 85.3 | +15.8% |
| 2012 | LeBron James | Miami Heat | 69.7 | Chicago Bulls | 78.5 | +8.8% |
| 2014 | Kevin Durant | Oklahoma City Thunder | 72.0 | San Antonio Spurs | 77.0 | +5.0% |
% Gap shows how much better the top team's record was compared to the MVP winner's team
So it was always a different team. '04 and '14 had a small enough difference in win %, but 2006 and 2008 look pretty egregious. What happened?
Balanced teams
It turns out, almost all of those years, the team with the best win % didn't exactly have a great candidate.
2004: The Pacers had Jermaine O'Neal (finished 3rd) and Metta World Peace, but this isn't really controversial. It wasn't some historical season for either of them.
2006: The Pistons had a massive 18.4% better win percentage than Nash's Suns. Chauncey Billups was their best player, but Detroit's success came from team success, not individual dominance. No single Piston put up the stats voters typically reward.
2008: The Celtics' 66-16 record (15.8% better than Kobe's Lakers) came from the Big Three of Garnett, Pierce, and Allen. KG did finish 3rd, but this is a year when players cancel each other's votes out (Cavs 2025 perhaps?).
2012: The Bulls had the best record, but Derrick Rose missed 41% of the season, playing the equivalent of only 48 games in a regular 82-game season. That's just too few games, and today would be automatic disqualification.
2014: The Spurs' 62-20 record came from their signature balanced attack led by Duncan and Parker with Kawhi on the rise. No Spur even made the 10 in MVP (Duncan and Parker tied for 12th).
Analogies to 2025?
I don't see a clear comparison to 2025 in any of these years. Clearly the "best player on the best team" doesn't always win, but Tyrese isn't too far off. In these 5 years where the rule didn't apply, none of the alternative candidates were particularly compelling, especially compared to the alternatives in the Russ MVP year or Joker/Embiid 2 years ago.
If Joker wins, clearly we won't be saying in 10 years that the Thunder didn't win it because they were a "balanced team" with no clear candidate. And if he does take it, it'll be despite a 35% wins gap (69/51), which is absolutely huge. Only a truly historical season could make that case. Now, top 3 in points, rebounds and assistants with the first EVER 30/20/20 season is pretty historic. But the safer bet historically would be to give SGA the edge thanks to team success.
So fair play Tyrese, you're pretty on the money after all that.