Underdogs On The Rise: How Improbable was the Canucks' Season?

May 23, 2024

It's all over. The Canucks had a great run, but ultimately couldn't close out the Oilers. Even though it stings that they came this close to a Conference Finals appearance, it's hard to be disappointed with the end result. Vancouver came into the season with the goal of sneaking into the playoffs ("if everything goes right").

So how improbable was this run? Where did the pundits have the Canucks before the season? I want to quantify their overperformance.

Fortunately, NHL.com themselves have 16 writers make detailed predictions before the season. These can serve as a proxy for general analyst sentiment. We can rank them by assigning a score to each prediction (wild card team, division winner, etc.).

West Predictions


Dallas Stars	75	1
Colorado Avalanche	73	2
Edmonton Oilers	69	3
Los Angeles Kings	35	4
Minnesota Wild	28	5
Seattle Kraken	14	6
Vancouver Canucks	7	7
Nashville Predators	7	8
Calgary Flames	6	9
Arizona Coyotes	3	10
Winnipeg Jets	3	11

So they were picked 7th in the west, thanks to a score of 7 (5 wildcard predictions, 1 3rd-place). How do the picks compare to reality?

West Standings


Dallas Stars	113	1	0
Winnipeg Jets	110	2	9
Vancouver Canucks	109	3	4
Colorado Avalanche	107	4	2
Edmonton Oilers	104	5	2
Nashville Predators	99	6	2
Los Angeles Kings	99	7	3
St. Louis Blues	92	8	0
Minnesota Wild	87	9	4
Calgary Flames	81	10	1


Dallas Stars	52	21	9	113	1	0
Winnipeg Jets	52	24	6	110	2	9
Vancouver Canucks	50	23	9	109	3	4
Colorado Avalanche	50	25	7	107	4	2
Edmonton Oilers	49	27	6	104	5	2
Nashville Predators	47	30	5	99	6	2
Los Angeles Kings	44	27	11	99	7	3
St. Louis Blues	43	33	6	92	8	0
Minnesota Wild	39	34	9	87	9	4
Calgary Flames	38	39	5	81	10	1

The Canucks definitely overperformed with a rank diff of +4, but clearly the biggest standout is the Jets, climbing 9 spots to finish 2nd. They were picked by just 3 analysts, and all were to finish as a wildcard. What about the East?

East Predictions


Carolina Hurricanes	77	1
Toronto Maple Leafs	74	2
Vegas Golden Knights	56	3
New Jersey Devils	55	4
Boston Bruins	37	5
New York Rangers	37	6
Buffalo Sabres	25	7
Tampa Bay Lightning	23	8
Pittsburgh Penguins	20	9
Florida Panthers	13	10
Ottawa Senators	7	11
Detroit Red Wings	1	12
New York Islanders	1	13
Washington Capitals	1	14

East Standings


New York Rangers	114	1	5
Carolina Hurricanes	111	2	1
Florida Panthers	110	3	7
Boston Bruins	109	4	1
Toronto Maple Leafs	102	5	3
Tampa Bay Lightning	98	6	2
Vegas Golden Knights	98	7	4
New York Islanders	94	8	5
Washington Capitals	91	9	5
Detroit Red Wings	91	10	2


New York Rangers	55	23	4	114	1	5
Carolina Hurricanes	52	23	7	111	2	1
Florida Panthers	52	24	6	110	3	7
Boston Bruins	47	20	15	109	4	1
Toronto Maple Leafs	46	26	10	102	5	3
Tampa Bay Lightning	45	29	8	98	6	2
Vegas Golden Knights	45	29	8	98	7	4
New York Islanders	39	27	16	94	8	5
Washington Capitals	40	31	11	91	9	5
Detroit Red Wings	41	32	9	91	10	2

The East is all over the place. The Leafs took a tumble, with 1 writer actually picking them to win it all (looking at you William Douglas), and the Panthers exceeding expectations by far. Florida were picked at highest as 2nd in the Atlantic, and completely left off 8 of the ballots.

So the Canucks made a great run, and certainly overperformed, but they weren't the only ones. If anything, all this shows is the unpredictability of the NHL (or the quality of NHL.com's writers' picks?). I wonder how this compares to the preseason picks for the NBA...